Bernie Sanders can still win

I have been reading a lot of articles (1,2) in the mainstream press saying that Bernie Sanders can’t win  and I even encountered one saying that Bernie should drop out of the race for the sake of party unity, so that the Democrats can beat the Republicans in the general election. Frankly this argument is bullshit. First of all, Hillary has 1139 and Bernie has 825 pledged delegates, but they need 2838 delegates to win, so the race is hardly over. All the so-called “pundits” in the mainstream media are saying that there is no way that Bernie can win since he is 314 delegates behind Hillary.

Overcoming that difference in delegates will be very difficult, but by no means is the race already won. I calculate that Bernie has to win 55.6% of all remaining delegates to win, whereas Hillary has to win 44.4%. Looking at the remaining states in the race, it is very possible that Bernie can win 55.6% of all remaining votes. He will probably win Arizona, Idaho and Utah on March 22, Alaska, Hawaii and Washington on March 26, Wisconsin on April 5, Wyoming on April 9. If Bernie wins the next 8 primaries, he might have enough momentum at that point to convince New Yorkers on April 19 that he is a safe bet, despite its large minority population.

There are no Southern states left for Hillary, so we aren’t going see any more states where Hillary wins by more than a 20 point margin (except Washington DC), whereas Bernie is going to win by big margins in a lot of the remaining states. While Bernie only got 10-15% of the black vote in the South, in Michigan Bernie got 30% and I think we can expect that trend to continue in the remaining states in the primary elections. In Texas Bernie only won 29% of the Latino vote, but in Colorado and Nevada he won roughly half of the Latino vote and in Michigan he won 65% of the Latino vote.

In the remaining states, Bernie will probably get 30% of the black vote, 50% of the Latino vote and 60% of the white vote, which means that he will get roughly 55% of all remaining votes and can win the nomination for the presidency. Nobody should count Bernie out yet. I predict that it will be a race all the way to the California primary, and Bernie supporters need to campaign as hard as ever for their candidate. So don’t listen to the so called “pundits”. They all work for the establishment media which is openly biased for pro-corporate candidates like Hillary.

As for the question of the superdelegates, they don’t dare swing the nomination to Hillary if Bernie wins the vote among the pledged delegates. If they did that, they would be face such a backlash that it would destroy the Democratic Party’s chances in the general election. They know that a very sizable percentage of Bernie supporters would refuse to vote for Hillary in the general if she used superdelegates to steal the nomination in the primary. The superdelegates also know that Bernie is outpolling Hillary in matchups with Trump, has higher favorability scores than Hillary, doesn’t risk being indicted by the FBI, and has broader appeal among millenials and independents so he will turn out the vote better than Hillary. By any measure, Bernie is actually the safer candidate in the general election than Hillary and the super-delegates know it, even if they would prefer an establishment candidate.

Even if Hillary pulls ahead and wraps of the nomination early, all Bernie supporters should continue to campaign for him until the very end and keep his delegate vote as high as possible. It is very likely that if Bernie looses the nomination, he will push to get certain agenda items included in the Democratic platform and might even present a plan reform the Democratic Party during the convention. If he comes with 45% of the pledged delegates, he can demand that a public option for medical insurance, a $15 minimum wage, and similar points be included in the Democratic Party’s platform. More importantly, he can demand that superdelegates be eliminated in future elections and that the primaries not be front-loaded with conservative Southern states that knock out liberal candidates. In other words, there are very good reasons to vote for Bernie even if he can’t win the nomination, but at this point, Bernie still has a good chance of beating Hillary and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.

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One thought on “Bernie Sanders can still win

  1. Jalene

    C’est un peu ce que je voulais dire Acca! Merci.En gros, cela peut se traduire ainsi, foutons la paix aux gens qui croient et à ceux qui ne croient pas, et prcÃc©oupons nous de rendre ce monde plus juste, nous ne supprimerons certes pas la violence, mais nous ne nous tromperons pas de cible!

    Like

    Reply

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