Category Archives: energía

Questioning the rosy predictions about the transition to autonomous electric vehicles

The Stanford economist Tony Seba and tech investor James Arbib just released a report entitled “Rethinking Transportation,” which makes an number of predictions about the impact that autonomous electric vehicles will have on the demand for vehicles and petroleum. Many of these predictions are based on faulty assumptions about human behavior and a misunderstanding of the auto supply chain.
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La problemática de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero en Bolivia

Estoy escribiendo un libro con el titulo preliminar “La problemática de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero en Bolivia”, que presenta datos acerca del las emisiones de Bolivia y la pólitica del Estado. El borrador del libro esta disponible para descargar:
ProblematicaGEIBolivia.odt (para editar en OpenOffice/LibreOffice)
ProblematicaGEIBolivia.pdf (para leer en Adobe Acrobat)

Gracias por cualquier tipo de comentario u observación acerca del libro.

The Mexican gasolinazo prefigures the future of Bolivia

Recent news is filled with the protests over the Mexican gasolinazo. The Bolivian newspapers have a few brief headlines about the Mexican crisis, and these articles often draw reference to the gasolinazo experienced by Bolivia a couple years ago. However, there seems to be little recognition within Bolivia that its future will be dominated by gasolinazos which are far worse than the current one in Mexico.

In Bolivia, gasoline and diesel is sold at a price of 3.7 bolivianos per liter, whereas it costs between 8 and 10 bolivianos per liter outside the country, meaning that 50% to 60% of the price is subsidized. Over the last decade, and the percent of Bolivian electricity coming from burning fossil fuels has risen from 60% to 78%, because the government mandates that thermoelectric plants can buy a thousand cubic feet of natural gas at a subsidized price of $1.90, whereas Bolivia exports that same gas at a price of between $5 and $10. In 2014, Bolivia spent over $800 million of its annual budget subsidizing fossil fuels, which is much more than Mexico per capita, when you consider that the population of Mexico is 10 times bigger. If you look at the difference between the price of fuels inside Bolivia and the price of the fuels that Bolivia exports, I calculate that Bolivia lost $3.4 billion in 2014 due to the subsidies. These amounts have dropped in recent years due to the falling prices of oil and gas in international markets, but the recent rises in prices indicates that Bolivia will probably have to spend as much on subsidized fuel in the future as it did in 2014.

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Declaración contra la fractura hidráulica (fracking) en Bolivia

Esta declaración en contra de fracking en bolivia contiene algunos números que he calculado:


La fractura hidráulica o “fracking” en inglés es una técnica de extracción hidrocarburífera altamente riesgosa y contaminante, que consiste en inyectar agua y químicos a alta presión para fracturar la roca de esquisto y permitir extraer el gas natural atrapado en las formaciones de roca.

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James Hansen’s proposals to dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Dr. James Hansen gave a speech entitled “Combating the Climate Crisis: The Path from Science to Action” at MIT on April 15, 2014, about what needs to be done to dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and avoid dangerous climate change.

I have been an avid reader of Hansen’s work over the last 5 years ever since he published Storms of my Grandchildren. He is a much better writer than public speaker. Watching him stumble through this speech, you would never guess how clear and well-argued his scientific papers are. He really needs others to amplify his idea in the public sphere, because his message is so important if we are going to save the planet.
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96 años más hasta el fin de la humanidad

Entre el 2000 y el 2012, las emisiones mundiales de combustibles fósiles y la fabricación de cemento han crecido el 3,0% por año.1 Lastimosamente, muchas predicciones de los modelos climáticos son basadas en una tasa de crecimiento entre el 1,0% y el 1,5%,2 porque la tasa anual fue un 1,5% entre el 1973 y el 1999.1 En la última decada, países en desarrollo, especialmente China y India, han crecido sus emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Desde el año 2006, paises en desarrollo ha emitido más que los paises desarrollados,2 y se predice que mundo en desarollo emitirá un 70% más que los paises desarrollados en el 2030.3 Bolivia está haciendo su parte para producir más hidrocarburos y calentar el clima.  La producción de petróleo en Bolivia ha subido un 3,7% por año entre el 2000 y el 2013, y  la producción de gas natural ha subido un 15,3% por año entre el 2000 y el 2012.4

La cuestión es ¿por cuánto tiempo más podemos seguir sacando hidrocarburos del suelo y quemándolos? Continue reading